Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 77.05%. A draw had a probability of 15.81% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 7.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.46%) and 3-0 (10.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.78%) , while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (2.91%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood.