Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 46.8%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 28.99% and a draw had a probability of 24.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.87%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (7.37%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.