Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 63.51%. A draw had a probability of 21.14% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 15.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (10.44%) and 0-2 (10.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.39%) , while for a Moreirense win it was 1-0 (4.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.