Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 37.66%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 33.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.97%) and 2-0 (7.1%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.74%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.