Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 42.64%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 31.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (6.7%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (8.15%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.