Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.79%. A win for Tondela had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 25.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.94%). The likeliest Tondela win was 0-1 (8.68%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood.