Primeira Liga | Gameweek 17

Jan 3, 2026 at 3.30pm UK

Tondela Tondela
vs.
Arouca Arouca

Coverage of the Primeira Liga clash between Tondela and Arouca.

Form, Standings, Stats

Tondela

All competitions

Last Game: Tondela 1-2 Casa Pia
Sunday, December 21 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca

All competitions

Last Game: Arouca 2-2 Gil Vicente
Sunday, December 28 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Tondela win with a probability of 38.76%. A win for Arouca has a probability of 34.12% and a draw has a probability of 27.12%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win is 1-0 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.28%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Arouca win is 0-1 (10%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.86%).

Result
Tondela	Draw	Arouca
38.76% ( -0.12)	27.12% ( -0.02)	34.12% ( 0.14)

Both teams to score 50.35% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.01% (

0.09)

54.99% (

-0.09)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.74% (

0.08)

76.26% (

-0.07)

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

72.38% (

-0.03)

27.62% (

0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.84% (

-0.03)

63.16% (

0.04)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

69.57% (

0.14)

30.43% (

-0.14)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

33.36% (

0.16)

66.64% (

-0.16)

Score Analysis

Tondela 38.76%

Arouca 34.12%

Draw 27.11%

Tondela	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 10.81% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 3.55% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 2.98% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 2.11% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.97% Total : 38.76%	1-1 @ 12.86% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.41% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.92% Total : 27.11%	0-1 @ 10% ( 0) 1-2 @ 7.65% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.95% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.04% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.95% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 0.9% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.27% Total : 34.12%