Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 51.22%. A draw had a probability of 25.82% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 22.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10%) and 1-2 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.17%) , while for a Arouca win it was 1-0 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.