Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 38.77%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 33.29% and a draw had a probability of 27.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.67%) and 2-1 (7.59%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 0-1 (10.53%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.