Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 48.12%. A win for Sporting Lisbon had a probability of 27.06% and a draw had a probability of 24.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.8%) and 2-0 (8.08%). The likeliest Sporting Lisbon win was 1-2 (6.99%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.6% likelihood.