Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 69.62%. A draw had a probability of 20.09% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 10.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 14.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (14.83%) and 1-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%) , while for a Casa Pia win it was 1-0 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.