Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Casa Pia win with a probability of 48.5%. A draw had a probability of 27.37% and a win for AVS had a probability of 24.12%.
The most likely scoreline for a Casa Pia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.46%) and 2-1 (8.84%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.55%) , while for a AVS win it was 0-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.