Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 86.06%. A draw had a probability of 9.44% and a win for AVS had a probability of 4.47%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 3-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12%) and 1-0 (8.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.44%) , while for a AVS win it was 1-2 (1.6%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.