Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 69.15%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Santa Clara had a probability of 10.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.91%) and 3-0 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.66%) , while for a Santa Clara win it was 0-1 (4.27%).