Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 38.48%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 32.65% and a draw had a probability of 28.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (6.85%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 0-1 (10.91%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.3%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.