Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Clara win with a probability of 42.43%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 28.81% and a draw had a probability of 28.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Clara win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.69%) and 0-2 (7.99%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (10.17%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood.