Primeira Liga Gameweek 20
Jan 31, 2026 8.30pm
Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca

Alverca vs Estrela Amadora - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Alverca

All competitions
Last game
Jan 25, 2026 8.30pm
Braga 5 - 0 Alverca
Goals scored
18
Top scorer
Marko Milovanovic

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Last game
Jan 25, 2026 6.00pm
Benfica 4 - 0 Estrela Amadora
Goals scored
23
Top scorer
Kikas

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Alverca win with a probability of 55.42%. A draw has a probability of 23.16% and a win for Estrela Amadora has a probability of 21.42%.

The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (11.25%) , while for a Estrela Amadora win it is 0-1 (6.24%).

Result

Alverca 55.42% (+0.04)
Draw 23.16% (-0.02)
Estrela Amadora 21.42% (-0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.08% (-0.02)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.85% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 24.15% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 52.08% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 47.92% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 29.68% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 70.32% (-0.02)
Over 4.5 17.33% (+0.03)
Under 4.5 82.67% (-0.04)

First Half Winner

Alverca 38.74% (-0.06)
Draw 43.54% (+0.08)
Estrela Amadora 17.72% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Alverca 58.92% (+0.02)
No Goal 6.23% (-0.01)
Estrela Amadora 34.85%

Corners

Over 8 30.17% (+0.04)
Equal 8 10.68% (+0.01)
Under 8 59.15% (-0.04)
Over 9 21.5% (+0.02)
Equal 9 8.68% (+0.01)
Under 9 69.83% (-0.04)
Over 10.5 14.94% (+0.02)
Under 10.5 85.06% (-0.02)

Alverca Goals

Over 1.5 51.03% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 48.97% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 25.2%
Under 2.5 74.8%
Over 3.5 9.83% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 90.17% (-0.02)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5 57.12% (-0.04)
Under 0.5 42.88% (+0.04)
Over 1.5 23.98% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 76.02% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 7.34% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 92.66% (-0.03)
Over 3.5 1.92% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 98.08% (-0.02)

Score analysis

Alverca 55.42%
Draw 23.18%
Estrela Amadora 21.41%
Alverca
1-0 @ 11.69% (+0.01)
2-1 @ 9.95%
2-0 @ 9.47% (+0.03)
3-1 @ 5.7%
3-0 @ 5.68% (-0.02)
3-2 @ 3.11% (-0.02)
Other @ 9.82% (+0.02)
Total : 55.42%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.25% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 6.23% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.81% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 23.18%
Estrela Amadora
0-1 @ 6.24% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 5.68% (-0.04)
0-2 @ 3.04%
1-3 @ 1.85%
2-3 @ 1.6% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 1.09%
Other @ 1.91% (+0.02)
Total : 21.41%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Aug 25, 2025 8.15pm
2
2
HT : 0 0
FT