Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 55.18%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 21.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%) , while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.