Primeira Liga Gameweek 20
Jan 31, 2026 8.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Complexo Desportivo do FC Alverca
  • Vasco Silva Moreira 17' yellowcard
  • Vasco Moreira 17' yellowcard
  • Vasco Moreira 66' yellowcard
  • Cédric Nuozzi 68' yellowcard
  • Mathis Clairicia 69' yellowcard
  • Cédric Nuozzi 69' yellowcard
  • Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi 69' yellowcard
  • Davy Jean Carl Kamon Gui 84' yellowcard
  • Fabricio Garcia 84' yellowcard
  • Fabrício Garcia 84' yellowcard
  • Fabricio Garcia 87' goal
  • Fabrício Garcia 87' goal
  • yellowcard Paulo Moreira 10'
  • yellowcard Yahya Kalley 10'
  • yellowcard Jorge Monteiro Meireles 53'
  • yellowcard Eddy Doué 53'
  • yellowcard Jorge Meireles 53'
  • yellowcard Yahya Kalley 62'
  • yellowcard Yahya Kalley 63'
  • yellowcard Yahya Kalley 64'
  • yellowcard Sydney van Hooijdonk 75'
  • yellowcard Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho 75'
  • yellowcard Robson Lucas Oliveira Botelho 76'
  • yellowcard Sydney van Hooijdonk 76'
  • yellowcard Robinho 76'
  • goal Sydney van Hooijdonk 81'
  • yellowcard Sydney van Hooijdonk 81'

Alverca vs Estrela Amadora - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Alverca

All competitions
Last game
Jan 25, 2026 8.30pm
Braga 5 - 0 Alverca
Goals scored
35
Top scorer
Marko Milovanović

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Last game
Jan 25, 2026 6.00pm
Benfica 4 - 0 Estrela Amadora
Goals scored
38
Top scorer
Jovane Cabral

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alverca win with a probability of 55.18%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 21.52%.

The most likely scoreline for a Alverca win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.94%) and 2-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.32%) , while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.37%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.

Result

Alverca 55.18% ▼ (-0.25)
Draw 23.3% ▲ (+0.15)
Estrela Amadora 21.52% ▲ (+0.10)

Both Teams to Score: 

51.68% ▼ (-0.40)

Goals

Over 1.5 75.45% ▼ (-0.37)
Under 1.5 24.55% ▲ (+0.38)
Over 2.5 51.51% ▼ (-0.58)
Under 2.5 48.49% ▲ (+0.58)
Over 3.5 29.11% ▼ (-0.57)
Under 3.5 70.89% ▲ (+0.57)
Over 4.5 16.88% ▼ (-0.45)
Under 4.5 83.12% ▲ (+0.44)

First Half Winner

Alverca 38.75%
Draw 43.53%
Estrela Amadora 17.72%

Team To Score First

Alverca 58.83% ▼ (-0.10)
No Goal 6.37% ▲ (+0.13)
Estrela Amadora 34.8% ▼ (-0.05)

Corners

Over 8 30.17%
Equal 8 10.68%
Under 8 59.15%
Over 9 21.5%
Equal 9 8.68%
Under 9 69.83%
Over 10.5 14.93%
Under 10.5 85.07%

Alverca Goals

Over 1.5 50.54% ▼ (-0.50)
Under 1.5 49.46% ▲ (+0.50)
Over 2.5 24.75% ▼ (-0.45)
Under 2.5 75.25% ▲ (+0.46)
Over 3.5 9.57% ▼ (-0.26)
Under 3.5 90.43% ▲ (+0.27)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5 57.08% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 0.5 42.92% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 1.5 23.82% ▼ (-0.17)
Under 1.5 76.18% ▲ (+0.17)
Over 2.5 7.21% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 2.5 92.79% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 3.5 1.87% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 3.5 98.13% ▲ (+0.05)

Score analysis

Alverca 55.19%
Draw 23.31%
Estrela Amadora 21.52%
Alverca
1-0 @ 11.83% ▲ (+0.15)
2-1 @ 9.94% ▼ (-0.01)
2-0 @ 9.52% ▲ (+0.05)
3-0 @ 5.66% ▼ (-0.04)
3-1 @ 5.63% ▼ (-0.07)
3-2 @ 3.05% ▼ (-0.07)
Other @ 9.56% ▼ (-0.26)
Total : 55.19%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.32% ▲ (+0.10)
0-0 @ 6.37% ▲ (+0.13)
2-2 @ 4.77% ▼ (-0.06)
Other @ 0.01%
Total : 23.31%
Estrela Amadora
0-1 @ 6.37% ▲ (+0.13)
1-2 @ 5.7% ▲ (+0.03)
0-2 @ 3.09% ▲ (+0.05)
1-3 @ 1.84% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.56% ▼ (-0.04)
0-3 @ 1.1% ▲ (+0.02)
Other @ 1.86% ▼ (-0.05)
Total : 21.52%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga Gameweek 3
Aug 25, 2025 8.15pm
2
2
HT : 1 2
FT Estádio José Gomes
  • João Gastão 16' yellowcard
  • Alan Godoy 16' yellowcard
  • Luan Patrick 21' yellowcard
  • Paulo Moreira 47' redcard
  • Fábio Ronaldo 45'+7' goal
  • Sidny Cabral 63' goal
  • Robinho 75' yellowcard
  • Jovane Cabral 86' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Kaiky Marques Naves 23'
  • goal Cédric Jean-Luc Nuozzi 37'
  • yellowcard Marko Milovanović 44'
  • goal Marko Milovanović 45'+3'
  • redcard Kaiky Marques Naves 62'
  • yellowcard Sergi Gómez Solà 67'
  • yellowcard Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira 68'