Primeira Liga Gameweek 16
Dec 27, 2025 8.30pm
4
1
HT : 2 0
FT Estádio António Coimbra da Mota
  • Bastien Meupiyou 36' goal
  • Yanis Begraoui 43' goal
  • Yanis Begraoui 47' goal
  • Pedro Maria Salgueiro Costa Pessoa Carvalho 52' yellowcard
  • Pedro Carvalho 52' yellowcard
  • Bastien Meupiyou 60' goal
  • Antef Tsoungui 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Lincoln 49'
  • yellowcard Lincoln Henrique Oliveira dos Santos 49'
  • yellowcard Nabili Touaizi 55'
  • yellowcard Nabil Touaizi 55'
  • goal Alexsandro Amorim de Freitas Filho 67'
  • yellowcard Jose Julian Martinez Crisanto 85'
  • yellowcard Jose Julian Martinez Crisanto 86'
  • yellowcard José Julián Martínez Crisanto 86'

Estoril Praia vs Alverca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions
Last game
Dec 19, 2025 8.15pm
Estoril 1 - 0 Braga
Goals scored
54
Top scorer
Yanis Begraoui

Alverca

All competitions
Last game
Dec 22, 2025 6.45pm
Alverca 0 - 3 Porto
Goals scored
35
Top scorer
Marko Milovanović

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 40.22%. A win for Alverca had a probability of 34.07% and a draw had a probability of 25.71%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (6.73%). The likeliest Alverca win was 0-1 (8.59%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.

Result

Estoril Praia 40.22% ▼ (-0.11)
Draw 25.71% ▼ (-0.01)
Alverca 34.07% ▲ (+0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

54.89% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5 50.81% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 2.5 49.18% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 28.75% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 71.25% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 13.82% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 86.18% ▼ (-0.02)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5 75.84% ▼ (-0.05)
Under 0.5 24.16% ▲ (+0.04)
Over 1.5 41.52% ▼ (-0.07)
Under 1.5 58.48% ▲ (+0.06)

Alverca Goals

Over 0.5 72.38% ▲ (+0.08)
Under 0.5 27.61% ▼ (-0.09)
Over 1.5 36.85% ▲ (+0.11)
Under 1.5 63.15% ▼ (-0.11)

Score analysis

Estoril Praia 40.22%
Draw 25.7%
Alverca 34.07%
Estoril Praia
1-0 @ 9.48% ▼ (-0.03)
2-1 @ 8.66% ▼ (-0.02)
2-0 @ 6.73% ▼ (-0.03)
3-1 @ 4.1% ▼ (-0.01)
3-0 @ 3.19% ▼ (-0.02)
3-2 @ 2.64%
4-1 @ 1.46% ▼ (-0.01)
4-0 @ 1.13% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 2.83%
Total : 40.22%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.19%
0-0 @ 6.67% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.57% ▲ (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.13% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 25.7%
Alverca
0-1 @ 8.59% ▲ (+0.01)
1-2 @ 7.85% ▲ (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5.52% ▲ (+0.02)
1-3 @ 3.37% ▲ (+0.02)
2-3 @ 2.39% ▲ (+0.01)
0-3 @ 2.37% ▲ (+0.02)
1-4 @ 1.08% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 2.9%
Total : 34.07%