Preview: Estoril Praia vs Alverca - prediction, team news, lineups

Estoril Praia aim to smile into the new year with back-to-back victories at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, as they welcome Alverca on Saturday for round 16 of the Primeira Liga.

The Canaries head into this encounter after a 1–0 success over Braga, a result that lifted them to ninth in the Portuguese top flight, level on 17 points with their visitors from Ribatejo, who are two spots below following a 3–0 defeat to league leaders Porto on Monday.

Match preview

Handing Braga their first defeat in five games (W4, L1) was a huge feat in itself, but Estoril’s latest victory carries extra significance as it ended a four-match winless run across all competitions (D1, L3).

Ian Cathro’s side had previously enjoyed a five-game unbeaten streak – four of those in the league (W2, D2) – before returning from the international break with a Taca de Portugal defeat at home to Famalicao.

A second clash with the same opponent three weeks later proved more damning, as the Canaries suffered a heavy 4–0 loss on their trip to Vila Nova in the Primeira Liga, following a defeat to Porto (3-1) and a draw against Moreirense (3-3).

Estoril’s triumph over Braga was secured by a 43rd-minute strike from Andre Lacximicant, marking their first clean sheet in the league this season and providing a four-point buffer above the relegation playoff zone.

While a further victory on Saturday would extend the gap between them and the drop, the Canaries face an unusual pattern, with each of their three home wins this season (D3, L3) having either followed or preceded a series of dropped points, highlighting the inconsistency they must manage.

Alverca will hope to exploit that vulnerability, though their current form offers little optimism, having lost consecutive matches without scoring.

The Ribatejo outfit enjoyed a three-match unbeaten run (W2, D1) following a 1–0 loss at Arouca, while facing league leaders Porto exposed the limitations of the newly promoted side.

Five wins from 15 matches underline Alverca’s competitiveness despite their long absence from the top division, yet eight defeats in that span highlight the team’s fragility when results do not go their way.

Four of those losses have come in seven league games on the road (W2, D1), signalling a clear need for manager Custodio Castro to make adjustments if his side are to take anything from Saturday’s trip.

Alverca’s attacking output has been modest at best, averaging just a goal per game, while their defence has conceded 23 times, leaving Castro with multiple challenges to address ahead of this fixture.

Estoril Praia Primeira Liga form:

Estoril Praia form (all competitions):

Alverca Primeira Liga form:

Team News

While manager Cathro would have preferred to stick with his winning formula, injuries and disciplinary issues could force changes to Estoril’s backline.

Left-back Pedro Amaral was forced off against Braga, while right-back Ricard Sanchez also left the field through injury; even if both are declared fit for Saturday, the latter will still miss out, having accumulated his fifth booking of the campaign.

Pedro Carvalho is therefore likely to cover at right-back, with Tiago Parente stepping in for Amaral if needed, particularly given Goncalo Costa’s absence over the past three matches.

Xeka continues his recovery from a knee injury, while Patrick de Paula could miss a second consecutive fixture. Lacximicant, Rafik Guitane, and Yanis Begraoui are expected to lead the attack.

Xeka is expected to remain sidelined as he continues his recovery from a knee injury, while Patrick de Paula could miss a second consecutive match.

Last weekend’s hero, Lacximicant, is likely to retain his place on the left flank, with Rafik Guitane potentially operating from the opposite side, while top scorer Yanis Begraoui, who has six league goals, should continue in the number nine role.

Marko Milovanovic has netted five times this season, accounting for a third of Alverca’s goals, and will aim to end a two-game drought while competing for the number nine role with Sandro Lima, who returns from suspension.

Chiquinho remains out following his injury against Benfica in August, Leo Chu is yet to make his debut and is expected to sit out again, while Stephane Diarra and Tomas Mendes complete the list of absentees for Alverca’s trip to Estoril this Saturday.

Estoril Praia possible starting lineup:

Robles; P Carvalho, Boma, Bacher, Amaral; Orellana, Holsgrove; Guitane, J Carvalho, Lacximicant; Begraoui

Alverca possible starting lineup:

Gomes; Naves, Martinez, Meupiyou; Touaizi, Abdulai, Amorim, Chissumba; Lincoln, S Lima, Nuozzi

We say: Estoril Praia 2-1 Alverca

This is the first competitive meeting between these sides, with the only prior encounter a 2–1 friendly victory for Alverca in July, so there is not much to hold on to in terms of head-to-head record.

That said, Estoril enter this clash in high spirits after overcoming a formidable opponent, and playing in front of their fans provides the ideal platform to capitalise on Alverca’s vulnerabilities, so a narrow home win appears the most likely outcome.

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.