Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 60.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.1% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 16.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.06%) and 2-1 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.87%) , while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 0-1 (6.18%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood.