Primeira Liga Gameweek 22
Feb 13, 2026 8.45pm
Estádio João Cardoso

Tondela vs Alverca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Tondela

All competitions
Last game
Feb 7, 2026 6.00pm
Estoril 2 - 2 Tondela
Goals scored
14
Top scorer
Pedro Henryque Pereira dos Santos

Alverca

All competitions
Last game
Feb 8, 2026 8.30pm
Benfica 2 - 1 Alverca
Goals scored
20
Top scorer
Marko Milovanovic

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Tondela win with a probability of 42.52%. A win for Alverca has a probability of 29.86% and a draw has a probability of 27.61%.

The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.55%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Alverca win is 0-1 (8.93%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (13.16%).

Result

Tondela 42.52%
Draw 27.61% (-0.02)
Alverca 29.86% (+0.04)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.27% (+0.05)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.1% (+0.07)
Under 1.5 28.9% (-0.08)
Over 2.5 45.54% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 54.46% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 24.07% (+0.06)
Under 3.5 75.93% (-0.06)
Over 4.5 12.57% (+0.04)
Under 4.5 87.43% (-0.03)

First Half Winner

Tondela 29.5% (-0.04)
Draw 46.44% (+0.09)
Alverca 24.06% (-0.06)

Team To Score First

Tondela 47.48% (+0.11)
No Goal 8.55% (-0.01)
Alverca 43.97% (-0.11)

Corners

Over 8 35.17% (+0.10)
Equal 8 11.35%
Under 8 53.48% (-0.11)
Over 9 25.52% (+0.08)
Equal 9 9.65% (+0.01)
Under 9 64.83% (-0.10)
Over 10.5 17.91% (+0.06)
Under 10.5 82.09% (-0.07)

Tondela Goals

Over 1.5 38.72% (+0.04)
Under 1.5 61.28% (-0.04)
Over 2.5 16.11% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 83.89% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 5.34% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 94.66% (-0.02)

Alverca Goals

Over 0.5 63.72% (+0.08)
Under 0.5 36.28% (-0.08)
Over 1.5 29.13% (+0.06)
Under 1.5 70.87% (-0.05)
Over 2.5 9.67% (+0.03)
Under 2.5 90.33% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 2.51%
Under 3.5 97.49%

Score analysis

Tondela 42.52%
Draw 27.62%
Alverca 29.86%
Tondela
1-0 @ 11.42% (-0.03)
2-1 @ 8.55% (+0.03)
2-0 @ 7.4% (-0.02)
3-1 @ 3.95% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 3.69%
3-2 @ 2.29% (+0.02)
Other @ 5.22% (+0.01)
Total : 42.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 13.16%
0-0 @ 8.55% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.95%
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 27.62%
Alverca
0-1 @ 8.93% (-0.01)
1-2 @ 7.22% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 5% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.6% (+0.02)
0-3 @ 2.01% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 1.71%
Other @ 2.39%
Total : 29.86%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Sep 12, 2025 8.15pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT