Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 51.91%. A draw had a probability of 25.26% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 22.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.3%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%) , while for a Tondela win it was 0-1 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.