Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 39.35%. A win for Santa Clara had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.13%). The likeliest Santa Clara win was 1-0 (8.02%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.