Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 52.21%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 23.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.96%) and 2-0 (9.13%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (6.38%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.54%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.