Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 60.93%. A draw had a probability of 22.3% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 16.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.37%) and 1-2 (9.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.38%) , while for a Arouca win it was 1-0 (5.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.