Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 70.67%. A draw had a probability of 18.96% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 10.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.15%) and 2-1 (10.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.68%) , while for a Arouca win it was 0-1 (3.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood.