Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 39.75%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 36.27% and a draw had a probability of 23.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.63%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 1-0 (8.54%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood.