Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 64.5%. A draw had a probability of 20.15% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 15.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.33%) and 1-2 (10.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.53%) , while for a Nacional win it was 1-0 (4.52%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.