Primeira Liga Gameweek 21
Feb 8, 2026 3.30pm
Estádio da Madeira

Nacional vs Casa Pia - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Feb 1, 2026 6.00pm
Sporting Lisbon 2 - 1 Nacional
Goals scored
22
Top scorer
Jesus Andres Ramirez

Casa Pia

All competitions
Last game
Feb 2, 2026 8.45pm
Casa Pia 2 - 1 Porto
Goals scored
21
Top scorer
Gaizka Larrazabal

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 42.12%. A win for Casa Pia has a probability of 32.44% and a draw has a probability of 25.38%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 2-1 with a probability of 8.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.22%). The likeliest Casa Pia win is 1-2 (7.81%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.45%).

Result

Nacional 42.12% (-0.04)
Draw 25.38%
Casa Pia 32.44% (+0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

60.31% (-0.08)

Goals

Over 1.5 79.03% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 20.97% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 56.76% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 43.24% (+0.08)
Over 3.5 34.44% (-0.11)
Under 3.5 65.56% (+0.11)
Over 4.5 20.06% (-0.07)
Under 4.5 79.94% (+0.07)

First Half Winner

Nacional 30.84% (-0.02)
Draw 44.49%
Casa Pia 24.67%

Team To Score First

Nacional 49.25% (-0.01)
No Goal 5.66% (+0.01)
Casa Pia 45.09%

Corners

Over 8 63.06%
Equal 8 10.9%
Under 8 26.04%
Over 9 51.48%
Equal 9 11.58%
Under 9 36.94%
Over 10.5 40.21%
Under 10.5 59.79%

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 45.14% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 54.86% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 20.56% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 79.44% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 7.9% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 92.1% (+0.04)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5 68.9%
Under 0.5 31.1%
Over 1.5 36.92% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 63.08% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 14.53% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 85.47% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 4.7% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 95.3% (+0.01)

Score analysis

Nacional 42.13%
Draw 25.38%
Casa Pia 32.42%
Nacional
2-1 @ 8.93% (+0.01)
1-0 @ 8.09% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 6.22%
3-1 @ 4.45%
3-2 @ 3.38%
3-0 @ 3.37% (+0.02)
Other @ 7.69% (-0.05)
Total : 42.13%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.45% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 6.6% (-0.02)
0-0 @ 5.66% (+0.01)
3-3 @ 1.46%
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 25.38%
Casa Pia
1-2 @ 7.81% (+0.01)
0-1 @ 7.15% (+0.02)
0-2 @ 4.6%
1-3 @ 3.33% (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.83% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 2.21%
Other @ 4.49% (-0.01)
Total : 32.42%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Aug 30, 2025 3.30pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Primeira Liga Gameweek 26
Mar 16, 2025 3.30pm
3
1
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio da Madeira
  • Leonardo Rodrigues dos Santos 45' yellowcard
  • Daniel Penha 45'+4' goal
  • Paulinho 60' goal
  • Diederrick Joel 75' goal
  • Arvin Appiah 90'+6' yellowcard
  • goal Gaizka Larrazabal 49'
  • yellowcard Ruben Kluivert 89'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 9
Oct 25, 2024 6.45pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Campo do Cevadeiro
  • Ruben Kluivert 39' goal
  • Rafael Brito 48' yellowcard
  • Ricardo Batista 82' redcard
  • Beni Mukendi 89' yellowcard
  • Nermin Zolotic 90'+1' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jose Gomes 62'
  • yellowcard Ulisses 77'
  • yellowcard Nigel Thomas 86'
Taca de Portugal
Nov 25, 2023 3.00pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
ET Estadio da Madeira
  • Andre Sousa 12' yellowcard
  • Luis Esteves 19' yellowcard
  • Joao Aurelio 42' yellowcard
  • Jordi Pola 83' yellowcard
  • Gustavo 88' yellowcard
  • Vladan Danilovic 96' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Leonardo Lelo 30'
  • yellowcard Pablo Roberto 74'
  • yellowcard Clayton 80'
  • yellowcard Ricardo Batista 105'+1'
  • yellowcard Gaizka Larrazabal 105'+2'
Taca da Liga
Sep 28, 2023 8.15pm
2
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Pina Manique
  • Felippe Cardoso 15' yellowcard
  • Isaac Bernardo Neto Monteiro 37' yellowcard
  • Neto 42' yellowcard
  • Felippe Cardoso 55' goal
  • Leonardo Lelo 72' yellowcard
  • Clayton 90'+4' goal
  • goal Witi 3'
  • yellowcard Carlos Daniel 48'
Taca de Portugal
Feb 9, 2023 5.30pm
2
5
HT : 0 1
ET
  • Diogo Pinto 53' goal
  • Rafael Martins 80' goal
  • goal Luis Esteves 44'
  • goal Luis Esteves 46'
  • goal Vladan Danilovic 94'
  • goal Bruno Gomes 105'+3'
  • goal Gustavo 108'