Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 76.8%. A draw had a probability of 16.64% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 6.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.86%) and 3-0 (10.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (7.56%) , while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (2.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.2% likelihood.