Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 59.7%. A draw had a probability of 21.78% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 18.51%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.54%) and 2-0 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.31%) , while for a Arouca win it was 1-2 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.5% likelihood.