Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 69.49%. A draw had a probability of 20.87% and a win for AVS had a probability of 9.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 17.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (15.07%) and 0-3 (9.57%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.33%) , while for a AVS win it was 1-0 (4.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.