Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tondela win with a probability of 46.24%. A draw had a probability of 27.45% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 26.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tondela win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.9%) and 2-0 (8.38%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%) , while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (8.98%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 9% likelihood.