Primeira Liga Gameweek 23
Feb 20, 2026 8.45pm
Estádio José Gomes

Estrela Amadora vs Tondela - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Last game
Feb 14, 2026 6.00pm
Guimaraes 2 - 1 Estrela Amadora
Goals scored
26
Top scorer
Kikas

Tondela

All competitions
Last game
Feb 13, 2026 8.45pm
Tondela 1 - 1 Alverca
Goals scored
15
Top scorer
Joao Silva

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 42.17%. A win for Tondela has a probability of 29.7% and a draw has a probability of 28.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win is 1-0 with a probability of 12.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.57%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Tondela win is 0-1 (9.34%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.93%).

Result

Estrela Amadora 42.17% (+0.15)
Draw 28.16% (-0.02)
Tondela 29.7% (-0.09)

Both Teams to Score: 

48.86% (-0.15)

Goals

Over 1.5 68.91% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 31.09% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 43.12% (-0.08)
Under 2.5 56.88% (+0.11)
Over 3.5 22.13% (-0.05)
Under 3.5 77.87% (+0.05)
Over 4.5 11.27%
Under 4.5 88.73%

First Half Winner

Estrela Amadora 28.79% (+0.04)
Draw 43.65% (-0.01)
Tondela 27.56% (-0.02)

Team To Score First

Estrela Amadora 47.5% (-0.03)
No Goal 9.53% (+0.01)
Tondela 42.97% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 51.41% (-0.06)
Equal 8 12.28% (-0.03)
Under 8 36.31% (+0.07)
Over 9 39.5% (-0.04)
Equal 9 11.91% (-0.02)
Under 9 48.59% (+0.06)
Over 10.5 28.92% (-0.02)
Under 10.5 71.08% (+0.02)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 1.5 37.34% (+0.09)
Under 1.5 62.66% (-0.09)
Over 2.5 14.15% (+0.06)
Under 2.5 85.85% (-0.06)
Over 3.5 4.26% (+0.02)
Under 3.5 95.74% (-0.03)

Tondela Goals

Over 0.5 62.58% (-0.08)
Under 0.5 37.42% (+0.08)
Over 1.5 28.14% (-0.10)
Under 1.5 71.86% (+0.10)
Over 2.5 9.24% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 90.76% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 2.52% (-0.01)
Under 3.5 97.48% (+0.02)

Score analysis

Estrela Amadora 42.18%
Draw 28.17%
Tondela 29.7%
Estrela Amadora
1-0 @ 12.27% (+0.04)
2-1 @ 8.57% (+0.01)
2-0 @ 8.05% (+0.06)
3-1 @ 3.6% (+0.02)
3-0 @ 3.44% (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.07%
Other @ 4.18% (+0.02)
Total : 42.18%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.93% (+0.01)
0-0 @ 9.53% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 4.85% (-0.03)
Other @ 0.08%
Total : 28.17%
Tondela
0-1 @ 9.34%
1-2 @ 7.2% (-0.04)
0-2 @ 4.78% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.43% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.79% (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.72% (-0.02)
Other @ 2.44% (-0.02)
Total : 29.7%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Sep 21, 2025 3.30pm
0
0
HT : 0 0
FT