Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 40.24%. A draw had a probability of 30.93% and a win for Tondela had a probability of 28.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.71%) and 0-2 (7.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.81%) , while for a Tondela win it was 1-0 (11.88%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood.