Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 53.09%. A draw had a probability of 25.79% and a win for Alverca had a probability of 21.15%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.15%) , while for a Alverca win it was 0-1 (7.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.