Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 41.15%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 27.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.36%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (9.7%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.