Primeira Liga Gameweek 4
Aug 30, 2026 3.30pm
Estádio da Madeira

Nacional vs Estrela Amadora - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Aug 23, 2026 3.30pm
Guimaraes 1 - 0 Nacional
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Léo Santos

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Last game
Aug 15, 2026 3.30pm
Alverca 2 - 2 Estrela Amadora
Goals scored
4
Top scorer
Leandro Antonetti 

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 43.25%. A win for Estrela Amadora has a probability of 28.78% and a draw has a probability of 27.97%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (7.69%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win is 0-1 (8.52%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.87%).

Result

Nacional 43.25% (-0.04)
Draw 27.97%
Estrela Amadora 28.78% (+0.05)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.95% (-0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.66% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 28.34% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 46.46% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 53.54% (+0.04)
Over 3.5 25.23% (-0.04)
Under 3.5 74.77% (+0.04)
Over 4.5 13.46% (-0.03)
Under 4.5 86.54% (+0.04)

First Half Winner

Nacional 28.98%
Draw 49.75% (-0.01)
Estrela Amadora 21.27%

Team To Score First

Nacional 50.92% (-0.01)
No Goal 8.66% (+0.01)
Estrela Amadora 40.42%

Corners

Over 8 56.33% (-0.33)
Equal 8 11.5% (-0.01)
Under 8 32.17% (+0.36)
Over 9 44.74% (-0.30)
Equal 9 11.59% (-0.05)
Under 9 43.67% (+0.33)
Over 10.5 34.01% (-0.25)
Under 10.5 65.99% (+0.24)

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 40.49% (-0.06)
Under 1.5 59.51% (+0.06)
Over 2.5 16.44% (-0.04)
Under 2.5 83.56% (+0.05)
Over 3.5 5.55% (-0.03)
Under 3.5 94.45% (+0.02)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5 63.54% (-0.01)
Under 0.5 36.46% (+0.01)
Over 1.5 29.09%
Under 1.5 70.91%
Over 2.5 9.88% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 90.12% (-0.01)
Over 3.5 2.73%
Under 3.5 97.27%

Score analysis

Nacional 43.25%
Draw 27.98%
Estrela Amadora 28.77%
Nacional
1-0 @ 11.16% (+0.03)
2-1 @ 9.08% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.69% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 3.98% (-0.02)
3-0 @ 3.54%
3-2 @ 2.39% (-0.01)
Other @ 5.41% (-0.02)
Total : 43.25%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.87%
0-0 @ 8.66% (+0.01)
2-2 @ 5.33%
Other @ 0.14%
Total : 27.98%
Estrela Amadora
0-1 @ 8.52% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 6.84%
0-2 @ 4.65%
1-3 @ 2.45%
2-3 @ 1.95%
0-3 @ 1.77% (+0.02)
Other @ 2.59%
Total : 28.77%

Head to Head

Club Friendlies 3
Jul 23, 2026 5.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estádio José Gomes
Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 4, 2026 3.30pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio da Madeira
  • Jesús Ramírez 2' goal
  • Daniel Jr 48' yellowcard
  • Daniel Jr 49' yellowcard
  • Paulinho Bóia 71' goal
  • L. Vallier 77' yellowcard
  • Filipe Soares 77' yellowcard
  • Francisco Gonçalves 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jovane Cabral 46'
  • yellowcard Tom Moustier 46'
  • yellowcard Jefferson Encada 74'
  • yellowcard Sydney van Hooijdonk 74'
  • yellowcard Jefferson Encada 75'
  • yellowcard Leandro Antonetti 85'
Primeira Liga
Nov 9, 2025 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio da Madeira
  • Matheus Dias 37' yellowcard
  • goal Francisco Sacalumbo 12'
  • yellowcard Francisco Sacalumbo 21'
  • yellowcard Leo Cordeiro 72'
  • goal Jovane Cabral 81'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 11
Nov 10, 2024 3.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jose Gomes
  • Ferro 62' yellowcard
  • Paulo Daniel Valente Moreira 77' goal
  • Kikas 86' goal
  • yellowcard Luis Esteves 12'