/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F12%2Fguilog.png)
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2F19%2F12%2Fnaclog.png)
-
Gustavo Silva
4'
-
Gonçalo Nogueira
28'
-
Miguel Nogueira
38'
-
Tiago Margarido
45'+4'
-
Daniel Jr
90'+5'
Vitoria de Guimaraes vs Nacional - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings
The match
Match Preview
/https%3A%2F%2Fsportsmole-media-prod.s3.gra.io.cloud.ovh.net%2Fuploads%2F2026%2F08%2Ffotojet-2026-08-12t203121-798-6a7cca22aa689252815523.jpg)
Form, Standings, Stats
Data analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 49.79%. A draw had a probability of 26.17% and a win for Nacional had a probability of 24.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.7%) and 2-0 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.16%) , while for a Nacional win it was 0-1 (7.59%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
Result
Vitoria de Guimaraes
49.79%
▲
(+0.15)
Draw
26.17%
▼
(-0.05)
Nacional
24.07%
▼
(-0.11)
Both Teams to Score:
49.41%
▼
(-0.02)
Goals
Over 1.5
71.92%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 1.5
28.08%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 2.5
47%
Under 2.5
52.96%
▼
(-0.04)
Over 3.5
25.61%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 3.5
74.39%
▼
(-0.02)
Over 4.5
14.07%
▲
(+0.02)
Under 4.5
85.93%
▼
(-0.02)
First Half Winner
Vitoria de Guimaraes
34.8%
Draw
47.13%
Nacional
18.07%
Team To Score First
Vitoria de Guimaraes
57.54%
No Goal
8.33%
▼
(-0.01)
Nacional
34.13%
▲
(+0.02)
Corners
Over 8
58.6%
▼
(-0.15)
Equal 8
11.41%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 8
29.99%
▲
(+0.17)
Over 9
46.89%
▼
(-0.15)
Equal 9
11.71%
▼
(-0.01)
Under 9
41.4%
▲
(+0.15)
Over 10.5
35.88%
▼
(-0.11)
Under 10.5
64.12%
▲
(+0.11)
Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals
Over 1.5
44.89%
▲
(+0.11)
Under 1.5
55.11%
▼
(-0.11)
Over 2.5
19.75%
▲
(+0.08)
Under 2.5
80.25%
▼
(-0.07)
Over 3.5
7.04%
▲
(+0.05)
Under 3.5
92.96%
▼
(-0.05)
Nacional Goals
Over 0.5
58.99%
▼
(-0.11)
Under 0.5
41.01%
▲
(+0.11)
Over 1.5
24.78%
▼
(-0.09)
Under 1.5
75.22%
▲
(+0.10)
Over 2.5
7.84%
▼
(-0.09)
Under 2.5
92.16%
▲
(+0.08)
Over 3.5
2.04%
▼
(-0.03)
Under 3.5
97.96%
▲
(+0.02)
Score analysis
Vitoria de Guimaraes
49.79%
Draw
26.17%
Nacional
24.08%
Vitoria de Guimaraes
1-0
@
12.2%
▲
(+0.02)
2-1 @ 9.7% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 9.08% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.76% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.49% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 6.95% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 49.79%
2-1 @ 9.7% ▲ (+0.01)
2-0 @ 9.08% ▲ (+0.03)
3-1 @ 4.76% ▲ (+0.01)
3-0 @ 4.49% ▲ (+0.03)
3-2 @ 2.61% ▲ (+0.01)
Other @ 6.95% ▲ (+0.05)
Total : 49.79%
Draw
1-1
@
12.16%
▼
(-0.02)
0-0 @ 8.33% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.74%
Other @ 0.09% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 26.17%
0-0 @ 8.33% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.74%
Other @ 0.09% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 26.17%
Nacional
0-1
@
7.59%
▼
(-0.03)
1-2 @ 5.92% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 3.67%
1-3 @ 2.05% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.62% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.28% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 1.95% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 24.08%
1-2 @ 5.92% ▼ (-0.03)
0-2 @ 3.67%
1-3 @ 2.05% ▼ (-0.02)
2-3 @ 1.62% ▼ (-0.01)
0-3 @ 1.28% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 1.95% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 24.08%
Head to Head
-
Jesús Ramírez
69'
-
Pablo Ruan
71'
-
Jesús Ramírez
86'
-
Jesús Ramírez
87'
-
André Sousa
90'+1'
-
Francisco Gonçalves
90'+1'
-
João Aurélio
90'+3'
-
João Aurélio
90'+4'
-
Noah Jose Saviolo
62'
-
Samu
78'
-
Samu
79'
-
80'
-
Zeega
80'
-
Miguel Nogueira
80'
-
Hugo Nunes
80'
-
Zeega
81'
Primeira Liga
Gameweek
17
-
Diogo Sousa
46'
-
A. Ndoye
59'
-
Oumar Camara
60'
-
Tony Strata
67'
-
Noah Jose Saviolo
70'
-
Rodrigo Abascal
87'
-
Fabio Blanco
90'
-
Chiheb Labidi
60'
-
Pablo Ruan
60'
-
Francisco Gonçalves
66'
-
Lucas João
76'
-
L. Vallier
76'
-
Chiheb Labidi
90'+2'