Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vitoria de Guimaraes win with a probability of 51.84%. A win for Rio Ave had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Rio Ave win was 1-2 (6.51%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood.