Club Friendlies 3
Jul 23, 2026 5.30pm
Estádio José Gomes

Estrela Amadora vs Nacional - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 18, 2026 1.00pm
Estrela Amadora 1 - 2 Casa Pia

Nacional

All competitions
Club Friendlies 3
Last game
Jul 22, 2026 11.00am
Nacional 0 - 0 Leganes

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 38.56%. A win for Estrela Amadora has a probability of 33.1% and a draw has a probability of 28.34%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 0-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 1-2 (8.19%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win is 1-0 (9.11%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (12.49%).

Result

Estrela Amadora 33.1% (-0.04)
Draw 28.34% (-0.04)
Nacional 38.56% (+0.13)

Both Teams to Score: 

52.27% (+0.13)

Goals

Over 1.5 71.87% (+0.13)
Under 1.5 28.13% (-0.13)
Over 2.5 47.54% (+0.20)
Under 2.5 52.46% (-0.20)
Over 3.5 27.02% (+0.17)
Under 3.5 72.98% (-0.16)
Over 4.5 14.71% (+0.10)
Under 4.5 85.29% (-0.09)

First Half Winner

Estrela Amadora 24.32% (+0.06)
Draw 48.98% (-0.10)
Nacional 26.7% (+0.04)

Team To Score First

Estrela Amadora 45.12% (+0.15)
No Goal 9.32% (-0.08)
Nacional 45.56% (-0.08)

Corners

Over 8 58.73% (-0.15)
Equal 8 11.23%
Under 8 30.05% (+0.16)
Over 9 47.21% (-0.12)
Equal 9 11.52% (-0.02)
Under 9 41.27% (+0.15)
Over 10.5 36.35% (-0.09)
Under 10.5 63.65% (+0.09)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 1.5 33.13% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 66.87% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 11.95% (+0.02)
Under 2.5 88.05% (-0.02)
Over 3.5 3.74% (+0.03)
Under 3.5 96.26% (-0.02)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 70.45% (+0.16)
Under 0.5 29.55% (-0.15)
Over 1.5 37.7% (+0.17)
Under 1.5 62.3% (-0.17)
Over 2.5 15.28% (+0.11)
Under 2.5 84.72% (-0.11)
Over 3.5 5.16% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 94.84% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Estrela Amadora 33.09%
Draw 28.33%
Nacional 38.57%
Estrela Amadora
1-0 @ 9.11% (-0.06)
2-1 @ 7.48% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 5.49% (-0.03)
3-1 @ 3.09%
3-2 @ 2.3%
3-0 @ 1.91% (-0.02)
Other @ 3.71% (+0.03)
Total : 33.09%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.49% (-0.01)
0-0 @ 9.32% (-0.08)
2-2 @ 5.58% (+0.03)
Other @ 0.03%
Total : 28.33%
Nacional
0-1 @ 9.69% (+0.01)
1-2 @ 8.19% (+0.05)
0-2 @ 6.35% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 3.64% (+0.04)
0-3 @ 2.94% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 2.63% (+0.01)
Other @ 5.13% (+0.05)
Total : 38.57%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 4, 2026 3.30pm
2
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estádio da Madeira
  • Jesús Ramírez 2' goal
  • Daniel Jr 48' yellowcard
  • Daniel Jr 49' yellowcard
  • Paulinho Bóia 71' goal
  • L. Vallier 77' yellowcard
  • Filipe Soares 77' yellowcard
  • Francisco Gonçalves 89' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jovane Cabral 46'
  • yellowcard Tom Moustier 46'
  • yellowcard Jefferson Encada 74'
  • yellowcard Sydney van Hooijdonk 74'
  • yellowcard Jefferson Encada 75'
  • yellowcard Leandro Antonetti 85'
Primeira Liga
Nov 9, 2025 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio da Madeira
  • Matheus Dias 37' yellowcard
  • goal Francisco Sacalumbo 12'
  • yellowcard Francisco Sacalumbo 21'
  • yellowcard Leo Cordeiro 72'
  • goal Jovane Cabral 81'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 11
Nov 10, 2024 3.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jose Gomes
  • Ferro 62' yellowcard
  • Paulo Daniel Valente Moreira 77' goal
  • Kikas 86' goal
  • yellowcard Luis Esteves 12'