Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 43.45%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 29.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.93%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 0-1 (8.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.