Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 4, 2026 3.30pm
Estádio da Madeira

Nacional vs Estrela Amadora - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Mar 21, 2026 3.30pm
Famalicao 1 - 0 Nacional
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Jesus Andres Ramirez

Estrela Amadora

All competitions
Last game
Mar 20, 2026 8.15pm
Estrela Amadora 4 - 0 Casa Pia
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Abraham Marcus

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Nacional win with a probability of 44.24%. A win for Estrela Amadora has a probability of 30.49% and a draw has a probability of 25.25%.

The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (7.11%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win is 0-1 (7.47%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.67%).

Result

Nacional 44.24% (-0.04)
Draw 25.25%
Estrela Amadora 30.49%

Both Teams to Score: 

55.34%

Goals

Over 1.5 76.32% (-0.05)
Under 1.5 23.68% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 53.11%
Under 2.5 46.89%
Over 3.5 30.48%
Under 3.5 69.52%
Over 4.5 17.42% (-0.01)
Under 4.5 82.58% (+0.02)

First Half Winner

Nacional 35%
Draw 42.32%
Estrela Amadora 22.69%

Team To Score First

Nacional 54.37%
No Goal 6.49% (-0.01)
Estrela Amadora 39.14% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 66.53%
Equal 8 10.56%
Under 8 22.91%
Over 9 54.96%
Equal 9 11.58%
Under 9 33.47%
Over 10.5 43.38%
Under 10.5 56.62%

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 44.01% (-0.04)
Under 1.5 55.99% (+0.04)
Over 2.5 19.59% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 80.41% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 7.14% (-0.02)
Under 3.5 92.86% (+0.02)

Estrela Amadora Goals

Over 0.5 65.9% (-0.02)
Under 0.5 34.1% (+0.03)
Over 1.5 32.97% (-0.01)
Under 1.5 67.03% (+0.02)
Over 2.5 12.61%
Under 2.5 87.39%
Over 3.5 3.95%
Under 3.5 96.05%

Score analysis

Nacional 44.23%
Draw 25.24%
Estrela Amadora 30.48%
Nacional
1-0 @ 9.67% (-0.01)
2-1 @ 9.3% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 7.11% (-0.01)
3-1 @ 4.49%
3-0 @ 3.82%
3-2 @ 2.88%
Other @ 6.96% (-0.01)
Total : 44.23%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.67%
0-0 @ 6.49% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 5.64%
3-3 @ 1.26%
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.24%
Estrela Amadora
0-1 @ 7.47%
1-2 @ 7.4%
0-2 @ 4.44% (-0.01)
1-3 @ 2.92%
2-3 @ 2.37%
0-3 @ 2.11%
Other @ 3.77%
Total : 30.48%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Nov 9, 2025 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Primeira Liga Gameweek 28
Apr 6, 2025 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio da Madeira
  • Matheus Dias 37' yellowcard
  • goal Francisco Sacalumbo 12'
  • yellowcard Francisco Sacalumbo 21'
  • yellowcard Leo Cordeiro 72'
  • goal Jovane Cabral 81'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 11
Nov 10, 2024 3.30pm
2
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Jose Gomes
  • Ferro 62' yellowcard
  • Paulo Daniel Valente Moreira 77' goal
  • Kikas 86' goal
  • yellowcard Luis Esteves 12'