Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 39.21%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 36.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.09%) and 2-0 (5.39%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 1-2 (8.46%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.