Primeira Liga Gameweek 24
Feb 28, 2026 6.00pm
Estádio da Madeira

Nacional vs Braga - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 3.30pm
Arouca 3 - 0 Nacional
Goals scored
27
Top scorer
Jesus Andres Ramirez

Braga

All competitions
Last game
Feb 21, 2026 8.30pm
Braga 3 - 2 Guimaraes
Goals scored
48
Top scorer
Ricardo Horta

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Braga win with a probability of 58.66%. A draw has a probability of 21.52% and a win for Nacional has a probability of 19.78%.

The most likely scoreline for a Braga win is 0-1 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-2 (10.14%) and 1-2 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline is 1-1 (9.74%) , while for a Nacional win it is 1-0 (5.13%).

Result

Nacional 19.78%
Draw 21.52% (-0.02)
Braga 58.66% (+0.01)

Both Teams to Score: 

53.33%

Goals

Over 1.5 78.82% (+0.02)
Under 1.5 21.18% (-0.02)
Over 2.5 56.14% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 43.86% (-0.04)
Over 3.5 33.8% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 66.2% (-0.10)
Over 4.5 20.97% (+0.08)
Under 4.5 79.03% (-0.07)

First Half Winner

Nacional 18.43%
Draw 38.97%
Braga 42.6%

Team To Score First

Nacional 28.14%
No Goal 5.59% (-0.01)
Braga 66.27% (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 57.84%
Equal 8 11.54%
Under 8 30.62% (-0.01)
Over 9 46.07% (-0.01)
Equal 9 11.76%
Under 9 42.16%
Over 10.5 35.08%
Under 10.5 64.92%

Nacional Goals

Over 1.5 24.02% (+0.01)
Under 1.5 75.98% (-0.01)
Over 2.5 8.04% (-0.02)
Under 2.5 91.96% (+0.01)
Over 3.5 2.17% (+0.01)
Under 3.5 97.83% (-0.02)

Braga Goals

Over 0.5 83.35% (+0.02)
Under 0.5 16.65% (-0.03)
Over 1.5 56.14%
Under 1.5 43.86%
Over 2.5 29.54% (+0.04)
Under 2.5 70.46% (-0.05)
Over 3.5 13.02% (+0.05)
Under 3.5 86.98% (-0.05)

Score analysis

Nacional 19.77%
Draw 21.53%
Braga 58.67%
Nacional
1-0 @ 5.13% (-0.03)
2-1 @ 5.04% (-0.01)
2-0 @ 2.8% (+0.01)
3-1 @ 2%
3-2 @ 1.7%
3-0 @ 1.1% (-0.02)
Other @ 2% (+0.02)
Total : 19.77%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.74% (+0.02)
0-0 @ 5.59% (-0.01)
2-2 @ 4.96%
3-3 @ 1.07% (-0.02)
Other @ 0.17%
Total : 21.53%
Braga
0-1 @ 10.43% (+0.01)
0-2 @ 10.14% (-0.03)
1-2 @ 9.8% (-0.01)
0-3 @ 6.4% (-0.03)
1-3 @ 5.87% (+0.01)
2-3 @ 3.18% (+0.03)
Other @ 12.85% (+0.05)
Total : 58.67%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Sep 28, 2025 6.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Primeira Liga Gameweek 23
Feb 21, 2025 8.15pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Estadio Municipal de Braga
  • Jean-Baptiste Gorby 37' goal
  • Uros Racic 77' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Matheus Dias 70'
  • yellowcard Chiheb Abidi 79'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 6
Sep 20, 2024 8.15pm
0
3
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio da Madeira
  • Matheus Dias 29' yellowcard
  • Ze Vitor 75' yellowcard
  • Andre Sousa 90'+2' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Jean-Baptiste Gorby 25'
  • yellowcard Yuri Ribeiro 27'
  • goal Sikou Niakate 77'
  • yellowcard Joao Ferreira 81'
  • goal Bruma 83'
  • goal Amine El Ouazzani 85'
Taca da Liga
Dec 22, 2023 8.15pm
1
3
HT : 0 3
FT Estadio da Madeira (Funchal (Ilha da Madeira))
  • Tiago Margarido 0' yellowcard
  • Jose Gomes 62' goal
  • Gustavo 70' yellowcard
  • Luis Esteves 74' yellowcard
  • Witi 77' yellowcard
  • goal Joao Moutinho 16'
  • goal Sikou Niakate 24'
  • goal Ricardo Horta 44'
  • yellowcard Sikou Niakate 45'+4'
  • yellowcard Joao Moutinho 86'
Taca de Portugal
Apr 25, 2023 7.30pm
2
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Uros Racic 33' goal
  • Rodrigo Gomes 48' goal
  • goal Clayton 72'
  • goal Dudu 90'+3'
Taca de Portugal
Apr 12, 2023 7.30pm
0
5
HT : 0 2
FT
  • goal Uros Racic 25'
  • goal Pizzi 43'
  • goal Uros Racic 53'
  • goal Simon Banza 76'
  • goal Simon Banza 90'+1'