Primeira Liga
Moreirense
Mar 7, 2026 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 1 0
FT Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Nacional
  • Luís Semedo 45'+7' goal
  • Nile John 64' yellowcard
  • Jimi Gower 76' yellowcard
  • Landerson 76' yellowcard
  • Kevyn Monteiro 85' yellowcard
  • goal Miguel Baeza 67'
  • yellowcard Pablo Ruan 69'
  • yellowcard Lucas João 84'
  • yellowcard Daniel Jr 90'

Moreirense vs Nacional - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

The match

Match Preview

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions
Last game
Mar 1, 2026 6.00pm
Casa Pia 1 - 1 Moreirense
Goals scored
31
Top scorer
Mateja Stjepanovic

Nacional

All competitions
Last game
Feb 28, 2026 6.00pm
Nacional 1 - 2 Braga
Goals scored
29
Top scorer
Jesus Andres Ramirez

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 41.18%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 32.58% and a draw had a probability of 26.24%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.66%) and 2-0 (7.16%). The likeliest Nacional win was 0-1 (9.08%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.3% likelihood.

Result

Moreirense 41.18% ▲ (+0.11)
Draw 26.24%
Nacional 32.58% ▼ (-0.11)

Both Teams to Score: 

50.75% ▼ (-0.18)

Goals

Over 1.5 72.39% ▼ (-0.11)
Under 1.5 27.61% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 2.5 47.82% ▼ (-0.14)
Under 2.5 52.18% ▲ (+0.14)
Over 3.5 25.51% ▼ (-0.13)
Under 3.5 74.49% ▲ (+0.13)
Over 4.5 13.78% ▼ (-0.09)
Under 4.5 86.22% ▲ (+0.10)

First Half Winner

Moreirense 26.76%
Draw 45.43%
Nacional 27.8%

Team To Score First

Moreirense 45.01% ▼ (-0.03)
No Goal 7.88% ▲ (+0.05)
Nacional 47.11% ▼ (-0.03)

Corners

Over 8 50.86%
Equal 8 11.79%
Under 8 37.36%
Over 9 39.48%
Equal 9 11.38%
Under 9 49.14%
Over 10.5 29.36%
Under 10.5 70.64%

Moreirense Goals

Over 1.5 38.67% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 1.5 61.33% ▲ (+0.02)
Over 2.5 15.74% ▼ (-0.02)
Under 2.5 84.26% ▲ (+0.03)
Over 3.5 5.27% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 94.73% ▲ (+0.03)

Nacional Goals

Over 0.5 65.6% ▼ (-0.19)
Under 0.5 34.4% ▲ (+0.18)
Over 1.5 31.8% ▼ (-0.18)
Under 1.5 68.2% ▲ (+0.19)
Over 2.5 11.63% ▼ (-0.10)
Under 2.5 88.37% ▲ (+0.11)
Over 3.5 3.5% ▼ (-0.03)
Under 3.5 96.5% ▲ (+0.04)

Score analysis

Moreirense 41.18%
Draw 26.23%
Nacional 32.58%
Moreirense
1-0 @ 10.64% ▲ (+0.06)
2-1 @ 8.66%
2-0 @ 7.16% ▲ (+0.05)
3-1 @ 3.81%
3-0 @ 3.56% ▲ (+0.04)
3-2 @ 2.2% ▼ (-0.01)
Other @ 5.15% ▼ (-0.01)
Total : 41.18%
Draw
1-1 @ 12.25%
0-0 @ 7.88% ▲ (+0.05)
2-2 @ 5.08% ▼ (-0.04)
Other @ 0.12% ▼ (-0.02)
Total : 26.23%
Nacional
0-1 @ 9.08%
1-2 @ 7.71% ▼ (-0.04)
0-2 @ 5.18% ▼ (-0.02)
1-3 @ 2.83% ▼ (-0.03)
0-3 @ 2.37% ▼ (-0.01)
2-3 @ 2.03% ▼ (-0.03)
Other @ 3.38% ▼ (-0.03)
Total : 32.58%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Nacional
Oct 4, 2025 3.30pm
3
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Moreirense
Primeira Liga Gameweek 31
Moreirense
Apr 27, 2025 3.30pm
1
1
HT : 0 0
FT Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Nacional
  • Yan Lincon Farias de Sousa 63' goal
  • Bernardo Martins 79' yellowcard
  • goal Ze Vitor 80'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 14
Nacional
Dec 14, 2024 6.00pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio da Madeira
Moreirense
  • Jose Gomes 55' goal
  • yellowcard Alan 24'
  • yellowcard Marcelo 90'
  • yellowcard Pedro Miguel Costa Santos 90'+2'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 31
Moreirense
May 6, 2021 3.00pm
2
2
HT : 0 1
FT
Nacional
  • David Simao 16' yellowcard
  • Goncalo Franco 44' yellowcard
  • Nahuel Ferraresi 62' goal
  • Andre Luis 78' yellowcard
  • Andre Luis 81' goal
  • Alex Soares 90'+1' yellowcard
  • Ibrahima Camara 90'+4' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Pedro Mendes 18'
  • goal Filipe Soares 43' (OG)
  • yellowcard Larry Azouni 53'
  • yellowcard Eber Bessa 66'
  • yellowcard Vladan Danilovic 71'
  • goal Bryan Rochez 74'
  • yellowcard Pedrao 90'+1'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 14
Nacional
Jan 17, 2021 3.00pm
0
1
HT : 0 0
FT
Moreirense
  • Brayan Riascos 42' yellowcard
  • Larry Azouni 53' yellowcard
  • Ruben Micael 76' yellowcard
  • Pedrao 83' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Abdu Conte 19'
  • yellowcard Fabio Pacheco 30'
  • yellowcard Steven Vitoria 63'
  • goal Steven Vitoria 78'
  • yellowcard Nahuel Ferraresi 90'+2'
  • yellowcard Alex Soares 90'+6'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 19
Moreirense
Jan 28, 2019 7.00pm
2
1
HT : 1 0
FT Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas (Moreira de Cónegos)
Nacional
  • Chiquinho 15' goal
  • Chiquinho 56' goal
  • Fabio Pacheco 76' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Julio Cesar 31'
  • yellowcard Okacha Hamzaoui 71'
  • yellowcard Joao Camacho 84'
  • goal Okacha Hamzaoui 87'
  • redcard Joao Camacho 91'

Form Data

Casa Pia 1 - 1 Moreirense
Moreirense 0 - 3 Sporting Lisbon
Rio Ave 1 - 2 Moreirense
Moreirense 1 - 2 Gil Vicente
Guimaraes 1 - 0 Moreirense
Moreirense 1 - 0 Santa Clara
Nacional 1 - 2 Braga
Arouca 3 - 0 Nacional
Nacional 0 - 1 Porto
Nacional 0 - 0 Casa Pia
Sporting Lisbon 2 - 1 Nacional
Nacional 4 - 0 Rio Ave