Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 61.78%. A draw had a probability of 21.63% and a win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 16.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (10.85%) and 0-2 (10.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%) , while for a Estrela Amadora win it was 1-0 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 10.9% likelihood.