Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 68.79%. A draw had a probability of 20.64% and a win for Moreirense had a probability of 10.58%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.67%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.19%) , while for a Moreirense win it was 0-1 (4.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.