Primeira Liga Gameweek 27
Mar 21, 2026 3.30pm
Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense vs Arouca - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Moreirense

All competitions
Last game
Mar 15, 2026 8.30pm
Porto 3 - 0 Moreirense
Goals scored
31
Top scorer
Mateja Stjepanovic

Arouca

All competitions
Last game
Mar 14, 2026 8.30pm
Arouca 1 - 2 Benfica
Goals scored
33
Top scorer
Hyun-ju Lee

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Arouca has a probability of 32.41% and a draw has a probability of 25.28%.

The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win is 1-0 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Arouca win is 0-1 (7.79%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (11.67%).

Result

Moreirense 42.3% (+0.48)
Draw 25.28% (-0.12)
Arouca 32.41% (-0.38)

Both Teams to Score: 

55.75% (-0.14)

Goals

Over 1.5 76.72%
Under 1.5 23.28%
Over 2.5 53.43% (+0.16)
Under 2.5 46.57% (-0.16)
Over 3.5 30.97% (+0.45)
Under 3.5 69.03% (-0.46)
Over 4.5 17.85% (+0.47)
Under 4.5 82.15% (-0.46)

First Half Winner

Moreirense 30.06% (-0.27)
Draw 42.97% (+0.12)
Arouca 26.98% (+0.15)

Team To Score First

Moreirense 48.22% (+0.34)
No Goal 6.45% (+0.09)
Arouca 45.33% (-0.43)

Corners

Over 8 48.18% (-0.15)
Equal 8 12.16% (-0.38)
Under 8 39.66% (+0.53)
Over 9 36.69% (+0.23)
Equal 9 11.49% (-0.38)
Under 9 51.82% (+0.15)
Over 10.5 26.71% (+0.54)
Under 10.5 73.29% (-0.53)

Moreirense Goals

Over 1.5 42.86% (+0.54)
Under 1.5 57.14% (-0.54)
Over 2.5 19.25% (+0.52)
Under 2.5 80.75% (-0.52)
Over 3.5 7.39% (+0.39)
Under 3.5 92.61% (-0.40)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5 67.11% (-0.66)
Under 0.5 32.89% (+0.65)
Over 1.5 34.5% (-0.32)
Under 1.5 65.5% (+0.32)
Over 2.5 13.5% (+0.17)
Under 2.5 86.5% (-0.18)
Over 3.5 4.28% (+0.09)
Under 3.5 95.72% (-0.08)

Score analysis

Moreirense 42.31%
Draw 25.28%
Arouca 32.41%
Moreirense
1-0 @ 9.04% (-0.02)
2-1 @ 8.85% (-0.08)
2-0 @ 6.66% (+0.16)
3-1 @ 4.3% (+0.04)
3-0 @ 3.58% (+0.09)
3-2 @ 2.72% (-0.03)
Other @ 7.16% (+0.34)
Total : 42.31%
Draw
1-1 @ 11.67% (-0.23)
0-0 @ 6.45% (+0.09)
2-2 @ 5.67% (-0.09)
3-3 @ 1.26% (+0.06)
Other @ 0.23% (+0.06)
Total : 25.28%
Arouca
0-1 @ 7.79% (-0.09)
1-2 @ 7.64% (-0.30)
0-2 @ 4.97% (-0.09)
1-3 @ 3.14% (+0.03)
2-3 @ 2.43% (+0.03)
0-3 @ 2.39%
Other @ 4.05% (+0.04)
Total : 32.41%

Head to Head

Primeira Liga
Nov 2, 2025 6.00pm
0
2
HT : 0 0
FT
Primeira Liga Gameweek 19
Jan 24, 2025 8.15pm
1
0
HT : 0 0
FT Estadio Municipal de Arouca
  • Alfonso Trezza 37' yellowcard
  • Taichi Fukui 41' yellowcard
  • Jose Fontan 54' yellowcard
  • Jason 77' goal
  • redcard 50'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 2
Aug 18, 2024 3.30pm
3
1
HT : 2 1
FT Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
  • Luis Nlavo 9' goal
  • Alan 45'+2' goal
  • Lawrence Ofori 59' yellowcard
  • Madson 65' goal
  • goal David Simao 3'
  • yellowcard Mateus Quaresma 74'
  • yellowcard Chico Faria Camara Lamba 83'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 26
Mar 17, 2024 3.30pm
1
0
HT : 1 0
FT Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
  • Hernani Infande 10' goal
  • Lawrence Ofori 26' yellowcard
  • yellowcard Eboue Kouassi 19'
Primeira Liga Gameweek 9
Oct 27, 2023 8.15pm
0
1
HT : 0 1
FT Estadio Municipal de Arouca
  • Alfonso Trezza 37' yellowcard
  • Eboue Kouassi 46' yellowcard
  • goal Marcelo 39'
  • yellowcard Jeremy Antonisse 76'
  • redcard Jeremy Antonisse 89'
Taca da Liga
Dec 22, 2022 8.15pm
1
2
HT : 1 0
FT
  • Andre Luis 44' goal
  • goal Tiago Esgaio 70'
  • goal Rafa Mujica 79'