Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Moreirense win with a probability of 42.25%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.27%.
The most likely scoreline for a Moreirense win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (6.66%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (7.82%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood.