Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 54.59%. A draw had a probability of 24.12% and a win for AVS had a probability of 21.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (10.27%) and 2-0 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.2%) , while for a AVS win it was 0-1 (6.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.